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Agricultural news
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| CBOT Market Recap 5/1/2011 |
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Corn
March Corn finished up 10 3/4 at 619 1/4, 1/2 off the high and 19 up from the low. July Corn closed up 11 at 631 3/4. This was 19 1/4 up from the low and 1/4 off the high.
The continued strong economic news for the global economy plus news of better than expected job growth in the US helped turn the commodity markets and the corn market from moderate losses early in the day to sharply higher on the day into the close. Follow-through technical selling helped drive March corn all the way to 600 1/4 in the overnight trade before a 619 1/4 close. The sharp rally in the dollar pressured many commodity markets overnight led by metals but buying emerged on the early break in corn and the market managed to trade higher into the mid-session. Rains in Argentina overnight were not quite as widespread as expected but there is more rain in the forecast for tomorrow and while some traders see a warmer and drier trend for next week, others reported increased odds of more rain events in Argentina into late next week. Positioning ahead of next week's final crop production and supply/demand reports plus expectations for tight quarterly stocks helped to provide support on the break. Ethanol production for the week ending December 31st averaged 904 thousand barrels per day. This is down.99% vs. last week and up 10.5% vs. last year. Corn used in last week's production is estimated at 94.92 million bushels as compared with 91.62 million bushels necessary each week to meet the USDA estimate for the year. Traders see weekly export sales for release before the opening near 600,000 tonnes.
Soya
March Soybeans finished up 24 at 1393 1/2, 1 1/2 off the high and 31 1/2 up from the low. July Soybeans closed up 22 1/2 at 1402 1/4. This was 30 1/4 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high. March Soymeal closed up 5.2 at 373.0. This was 8.5 up from the low and 0.8 off the high. March Soybean Oil finished up 0.91 at 57.76, 0.14 off the high and 1.36 up from the low. While many traders viewed the potential for more rain for late next week in Argentina as a potential negative force, the turn up in the US stock market and commodity markets due to continued strong economic news helped to support the strong gains on the day. A surge in the US dollar along with weakness in a wide range of other commodity markets helped to spark the early sell-off. Selling pressures dried up on the early break and ideas that Argentina weather could turn warm and dry into next week after some rains in the next few days helped to support. Cash basis levels in the US remain steady as producer selling slowed on the recent break. Palm oil futures closed lower after reaching a 35-month high this week but the slower production in December for Malaysia palm oil and fears that La Nina rains could keep production slow helped to support the jump in soybean oil. With palm oil trading up to near soybean oil for the first time in three years, some traders see improving demand for soybean oil over the near-term as soybean oil generally trades at a significant premium. Taiwan bought 57,000 tonnes of US or Brazilian soybeans from a large commercial firm. Talk that China is beginning to book soybeans and soybean oil from South America this week helped to provide some underlying support. Traders see weekly export sales, for release before the opening near 800,000 tonnes for soybeans, near 20,000 tonnes for oil and about 125,000 tonnes for meal.
Wheat
March Wheat finished up 19 at 808 1/4, 2 off the high and 32 1/4 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 19 at 846 1/4. This was 30 3/4 up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high. The market closed sharply higher on the session after a sharply lower trade on the day and the close near the highs of a 34 1/4 cent range had wheat following the other commodity markets higher in volatile trade. Talk of the oversold condition of the market and talk of continued dry weather in the plains helped to support active speculative buying on the session. The sharp rally in the US dollar plus continued fears from grain traders of index fund rebalancing helped to trigger the early break. However, a lack of new selling interest and a slowdown in the US dollar rally helped to support some short-covering and new buying in grains and wheat. While the crops appear vulnerable to deteriorating crop conditions from dryness in the plains of the US and in China, traders do not see any damaging cold weather over the near-term. A big crop on the way in India and a better than expected crop out of Argentina helped to limit the advance. Algeria is tendering to buy 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat. Traders see weekly export sales, released before the opening, near 400,000 tonnes. March Oats closed down 4 1/2 at 389 1/4. This was 10 1/2 up from the low and 3 3/4 off the high.
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